"But is it as serious as you make out, Theo?" Winthrop asked bluntly. "You've taken readings from a specific fixed location, remember. I've seen a number of recent reports on phytoplankton growth in the Atlantic, and while it's true that there
"Fair point," Theo said, helping himself to coffee. He stirred in a spoonful of sugar, sipped, and nodded appreciatively. "I've been used to instant.". He took another sip and said, "I chose Canton Island as my base because it lies in the ten-degree belt where cold-water up-welling takes place for most of the year. This provides the ideal conditions for abundant growth of microorganisms--in the first place because the water rising from two- to three-hundred-meter depths is rich in nutrients; and, second, because phytoplankton thrives in cooler water. Also, phytoplankton cannot grow at extreme depths because of insufficient light, which blocks photosynthesis. But given all these conditions--ample sunlight, cooler water, and plenty of nutrients--it should bloom copiously. And that's precisely what isn't happening."
Winthrop twisted the signet ring, working it around and around, his face somber. "What you're saying is that if the phytoplankton is declining in the ocean around Canton Island, where conditions are the most favorable, then the situation must be the same if not worse elsewhere in the world."
"A logical conclusion, I'd say. Wouldn't you?" Theo met the deputy director's eye squarely. "Unfortunately that isn't all."
"What else?" Winthrop said stonily. He wasn't sure that he wanted to hear any more.
"Well"--Theo placed his cup and saucer on the tray--"this part, I admit, is a hypothesis, but it follows on directly from my research findings. We know that the tropical oceans accumulate a net surplus of solar energy over the year, while the subarctic and arctic oceans show a net loss. Through the various poleward currents, such as the Gulf Stream, this excess heat is transferred from the tropics to the higher latitudes, and at the same time there's a deep return flow of cooler water toward the equator, resulting in upwelling. This is the mechanism that keeps the planet in thermal equilibrium." Theo tapped the bulky folder. "But if the phytoplankton is declining, as my records show, one possible cause is a temperature increase in the deep return flow to the tropics. It could be gradually getting warmer."
It took Winthrop several moments to see what the scientist was driving at. Warmer currents from the polar oceans could mean only one thing: that the polar oceans themselves were getting warmer. Which in turn meant that something was warming them. He grimaced as if in pain and shut his eyes.
"We're back to the C02 problem."
Theo nodded and poured himself more coffee.
Winthrop opened his eyes. "This is all supposition, though, isn't it? You've no concrete proof."
"About the warming of the polar oceans caused indirectly by a buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, yes. About the decline in the phytoplankton index leading to oxygen depletion, no."
"Theo, you can't be that certain!" Winthrop objected, nervously smoothing his tie with a manicured hand. "We're not even sure how much oxygen the phytoplankton contributes to the atmosphere. Nobody agrees on a precise figure--"
"But everybody agrees it's well over fifty percent," Theo reminded him. "Possibly as high as seventy percent. How long could we survive if
Winthrop didn't know what to say. There was something wrong with Theo's reasoning; there had to be. But he couldn't spot the flaw. Like every other ecological process, the manufacture of oxygen by photosynthesis was inextricably bound up with a host of other atmospheric and oceanic factors. Nothing operated independently, as of itself. Therefore if the oxygen level was being disturbed or disrupted in some way it should be apparent elsewhere in the system. Other things-- biological processes--would be affected. But what processes? Where to look? Where to
He breathed a long sigh. "This is a helluva lot to ask, Theo."
"I'm asking only one thing," Theo maintained stolidly, his rugged face grim, mouth set. "Evaluate the data. Is that asking too much?"
"And if I think you're wrong?"
Theo sat in silence. Finally he said, "Then I'll go somewhere else. The World Meteorological Organization or the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Somebody somewhere will listen eventually. They'll have to."
