Putin certainly did all in his power to buoy confidence. Apart from assistance for debt-ridden companies and banks (with a 200 billion dollar stimulus package), Putin staged his seventh ‘national town meeting’ on 4 December 2008—as before, a well-rehearsed and impressive conference with the public, not just journalists, which lasted over three hours and allowed the prime minister to respond to phone calls, emails, text messages, and live interaction with small groups around the country. He answered 76 questions and demonstrated his usual mastery of detail, grasp of broader issues, empathy for fellow citizens, and flashes of humour. The public voiced a broad range of concerns—demands for tougher sanctions against paedophiles, the dangers of inflation, the violence perpetrated by ‘skinheads’ against minorities, traffic congestion, and even the weather (‘When will it snow?’, to which Putin responded ‘That’s up to God’). Other than the weather, Putin made clear that everything else was up to him and his government. Putin also exuded sympathy for those in need, like that in a message from an elderly woman: ‘To Putin. From Nadezhda Mukhanova, a pensioner, 68 years old. My pension is 3,500 roubles [116 dollars]; fire wood costs 10,000 roubles [333 dollars]. How can I survive?’ In such cases Putin promised to have the relevant ministry investigate or to direct local authorities to take action. As for the general economic crisis, a confident Putin offered reassurance: ‘Russia has seen greater problems and coped with them. We shall cope with the present crisis too if we follow the right course and are purposeful about our complicated economic and social matters.’ He noted that the country’s large foreign exchange reserves would ‘allow us to plan for a soft landing’.
By early 2009, however, the prospects for a soft landing appeared to be fading. Putin predicted that the GDP would grow by 2.5 per cent in 2009, but other estimates were far more pessimistic, with forecasts that the GDP would decline by 3.0 to 15.0 per cent, depending on the price of oil and metals on international markets. In June 2009 the World Bank offered a more disinterested forcast, predicting that the GDP would decline by 7.5 per cent in 2009, but actually show a growth of 2.5 per cent in 2010. The range in projections reflected not so much political prejudice or posturing as the uncertainties in the global economy; given Russia’s reliance on commodity exports, the health of the global economy—and the demand for Russian resources—would determine the magnitude and duration of the Russian recession. Putin had achieved much during his two terms, promoting prosperity at home, amassing huge foreign exchange reserves, creating a stabilization fund, and reestablishing a centralized government. He positioned Russia as well as possible, but a country that gained so much from global boom was fated to lose just as much from a global bust. His plans for a ‘soft landing’ would depend heavily on global market forces far beyond his control.
MAPS
TERRITORIAL EXPANSION AND GROWTH OF THE RUSSIAN EMPIRE, 1260–1904
KIEVAN RUSSIA, 1054–1238
RUSSIA
EUROPE AT THE TIME OF PETER THE GREAT
THE PROVINCES OF EUROPEAN RUSSIA
RUSSIA, ITS EMPIRE, AND ITS NEIGHBOURS IN THE 20TH CENTURY
THE GREAT PATRIOTIC WAR
THE UNION OF SOVIET SOCIALIST REPUBLICS IN 1950
THE USSR IN 1991
CHRONOLOGY
For a detailed chronology of Russian history, see Francis Conte (ed.),
862
Traditional date for arrival of ‘Riurik’ of Varangians (Norsemen), founder of Riurikid dynasty (862–1598)
980–1015
Vladimir reigns as grand prince of Kiev
988
Conversion of Kievan Rus to Eastern Orthodox Christianity
1019–54
Iaroslav reigns as grand prince of Kiev
1037–46
Construction and decoration of Church of St Sofia in Kiev
1051
Hilarion consecrated as metropolitan of Kiev and all Rus
1055
Polovtsy appear on steppe
1061
Polovtsy attack territories of Rus
1072
Canonization of Princes Boris and Gleb
1096
Polovtsy attack Kiev and burn Pecherskii Monastery
1097
Princely conference at Liubech
1113–25
Vladimir Monomakh reigns as grand prince of Kiev
1132–6
Emergence of semi-autonomous Novgorod
1147
First chronicle mention of Moscow
1156
Construction of first kremlin walls in Moscow
1169
Armies of Prince Andrei Bogoliubskii of Vladimir sack Kiev
1191–2
Novgorod signs commercial treaty with Scandinavians and Germans
1223
Battle of Kalka: first encounter of Mongols with Kievan Rus
1237–40
Mongol conquest of Kievan Rus, culminating in the sack of Kiev
1240
Prince Alexander Nevsky defeats Swedes on the Neva
1242
Prince Alexander Nevsky defeats Teutonic Knights at Lake Peipus
1300
Moscow conquest of Kolomna: beginning of ‘in-gathering’ of Russian land
1317–28
Metropolitan moves to Moscow
1327–41
