“Sir, the Chinese fleet is not that much more advanced than the Philippine fleet, at least the vessels that operate near the Spratly Islands,” Rodgers said. “Most are small, lightly armed patrol boats. The exception, of course, is the flagship,
“The main Chinese offensive thrust would obviously be their overwhelming ground forces — they could land several hundred thousand troops in the Philippines in very short order,” Rodgers concluded. “Although we generally classify the Chinese Navy as smaller and less capable than ours, their naval forces are very capable of supporting and protecting their ground troops. An amphibious assault on the Philippines by the Chinese would be concluded very quickly, and it would push the necessary threshold of an American counterstrike to very high levels — very much along the lines of our DESERT SHIELD deployment, although without the advantage of forward basing.”
“So if the Chinese want to take the Spratly Islands, there’s not much we could do about it,” General Falmouth summarized.
“Sir, at the current force levels in the area, if the Chinese wanted to take the Philippines, there would be little we could do about it…”
There was a very animated murmur of voices at that comment. Curtis was the first to raise his voice above the others: “Wait one, Captain. Is this a J-2 assessment or an opinion?”
“It is not a directorate finding, sir, but it is nevertheless a statement of fact,” Rodgers replied. “If they so decided, it would take the People’s Liberation Army Navy less than a week…
“Ridiculous…”
“They wouldn’t dare…”
“Absurd…”
“According to the directorate’s preliminary report, sir,” Rodgers explained, getting their attention, “if the Chinese captured five strategic military bases — the naval facilities at Subic Bay and Zamboanga, the Air Force bases at Cavite and Cebu, and the Army base at Cagayan de Oro — and if they defeated Second Vice President Samar’s militia at Davao, they could secure the entire country.” She paused, then looked directly at them. “Gentlemen, the New Philippine Army is nothing more than a well-equipped police force, not a defense force. They have relied on the United States for its national defense — and obviously would have to again, if the need arose. General Samar’s Commonwealth Defense Force is a well-trained and well-organized guerrillafighting force, but they cannot stand up against a massive invasion. The Chinese have a thirty-to-one advantage in all areas.”
General Wilbur Curtis surveyed his Chiefs of Staff with a look of concern — the information Captain Rodgers had just conveyed had silenced them all. He had heard a lot of bad news during the past six years that he’d chaired the Joint Chiefs. He had learned to quickly decipher between isolated incidents and incidents that had a broader, far more serious impact if left untended. He knew the implications of what Rodgers was saying could be far more serious than any of them had previously thought.
“I think we all wanted to believe this was just another skirmish. But with the United States out of the Philippines, there is a large power vacuum in the area. We knew there’d be that danger. Still, I don’t think anyone believed the Chinese would consider moving so soon — if they really are.” Curtis turned to Captain Rodgers again and asked, “Are the Chinese likely to attempt an invasion?”
“Sir, if the Joint Chiefs would like a detailed briefing, I should get Central Intelligence involved,” Rodgers said. “I had been concentrating on the military aspects and hadn’t prepared a full briefing on the political situation. But J-2 does feel that the Philippines are ripe for the picking.” Curtis waited for additional thoughts from the Joint Chiefs; when there appeared to be no concrete suggestions, he said, “I’d like to review the current OPLANS for dealing with a possible Chinese action in the Philippines, then. I need to know what plans we have built already, and if they need to be updated. Captain Rodgers, I’d like Central Intelligence to get involved, and I’d like Current Operations to draft a response plan that I can present to the Secretary of Defense for his review. Include a Philippines update in the daily briefings, including satellite passes and a rundown on naval activity in the Spratlys and in the Chinese South China Sea fleet. Let’s get on top of this thing and have a plan of action
