Regardless of what the admiral and the Defense Primes thought, the math of the problem facing them was unescapable. The Jiangnan and Dalian shipyards in China had launched sixteen Type 055 destroyers between 2014 and 2032, while American shipyards had completed eighteen Arleigh Burkes in the same amount of time. The problem was that the PLA was also producing other highly capable destroyers, frigates, and submarines at a rate US shipbuilders had no means of keeping up with. In thirty years, the PLA Navy had achieved something unthinkable — numerical and tonnage superiority over the US Navy by the year 2032. No matter how
The DARPA Replicator program had provided the blueprint — not massive shipyards requiring thousands of skilled welders, but distributed production using civilian manufacturing. Anduril was mass-producing missiles and their Fury drones at production rates not seen since the end of World War II. Shield AI was now assembling underwater systems in plants that previously manufactured jet skis. Even traditional defense giants, while slow to adapt, had finally caught on. Huntington Ingalls was now operating “ghost yards” at the Toledo Shipyard in Ohio, at the General Dynamics NASSCO facility in San Diego, California, and at the Fincantieri shipyards of northern Wisconsin. They were dispersed far from vulnerable coastal yards the Navy had relied on the past couple of decades. With the introduction of modular construction techniques borrowed from prefab housing, the rate of construction of these unmanned combat vessels was beginning to outpace the rate of Chinese manned ship production.
The key to success with the ACVs was the constant reminder to the Navy brass that they weren’t meant to replace their treasured carriers or submarines. They were meant to augment them and overwhelm America’s enemies. Using swarm tactics backed by AI-battle managers, decisions could be made in nanoseconds. Lose ten unmanned surface vessels in a battle? Build twenty more before the end of the month. It was a change in how the Navy viewed its warships. No longer was it a race to match manned ship for manned ship with China. It was now a race to field more missile and drone platforms than China could hope to defend against. At least, that was the theory.
Now DARPA was several years into the Pentagon’s Replicator program as it scrambled to find ways to counter the Chinese Navy’s shipbuilding juggernaut. While Batista was generally optimistic about the changing trajectory, his jaw tightened as he reviewed current readiness levels. Theory required execution, and execution required hulls in the water. Every delay meant the equation shifted further in Beijing’s favor.
“Captain, that was an impressive video of each of these ACVs, but let’s dispense with the fancy projections of what these autonomous weapons are supposed to do and talk about why I’m looking at a task group that’s supposed to be fully operational but is currently at sixty-six percent strength,” grilled Batista, his voice cutting through the noise of the AC running in the background.
Hammond acknowledged the question as he tapped something on his tablet. The monitor displayed another slide, one highlighting operational vessels in blue. “Sir, two-thirds of our autonomous combat vessels are deployed with the USS
Batista raised an eyebrow, leaning forward to ask. “Live fire, eh? OK, that doesn’t answer my question about the other third. Where are they?”
Hammond shifted uncomfortably. “Production delays—”
Batista’s hand slammed the table in frustration. “Unacceptable, Captain. I’m looking at a roster that shows your Pacific Task Group Jericho-1 at sixty-six percent. Atlantic Fleet’s Hazar-1 is at fifty percent. Your second Pacific group, Jericho-2?” He scrolled through his own read-ahead on his tablet. “Forty percent. These were supposed to be at full strength three weeks ago.”
Admiral Vos intervened. “Jim, I understand the frustration. No one is more irritated by these production delays than I am. We’ve been encountering some serious supply chain issues that we’re still trying to—”
“Sorry to cut you off, Admiral, but I’ve got to call BS on part of this. Six months behind schedule. That’s what this read-ahead says.” Batista’s voice dropped to a dangerous quiet as he briefly held his tablet up, then placed it back on the table. “I know the Navy’s already submitted requirements for triple the current production. How exactly do these companies plan to meet that when they can’t fulfill this first order?”