“The thing is, Mr. President, this somehow feels bigger. Like this is part of a greater, more strategic plan in play. This incident around Gotland, in my mind, is a bigger deal than our Swedish and European allies may be willing to accept. It feels coordinated, the Russian and Chinese Navies working in tandem toward a common goal.” Batista paused, looking off camera for a moment, searching for the right words. “I know the emphasis of your next term, Mr. President, is meant to be on how we can find a way to bridge these geopolitical, economic, and social divides between the Western-led democracies and what’s transformed into this Eurasian Defense Economic Pact, EDEP. But we might have to face the reality that, despite our desire to achieve some sort of normal coexistence between our sides — as worthy a goal and as noble a gesture as yours and Europe’s is — we don’t have a willing partner opposite us that sees it the same way.”
Ashford nodded slowly, leaning back in his chair and looking up toward the ceiling, collecting his thoughts and weighing what to say in response. The 2020s had been a rough decade for the West, from COVID lockdowns to unheard-of levels of digital censorship to the brutal, barbaric war in Ukraine and the Middle East. People were looking for calm, for stability and for economic security at home.
The country was just starting to recover from the economic impact of running a $40 trillion deficit. Ashford’s push during his first term to create the Grain Consortium or GC, a cartel of like-minded nations that rewarded farmers for producing ever-growing quantities of food for the government to buy and then sell at guaranteed prices and quantities, had reduced global famine and food shortages by half in just the first couple of years. It had also brought in enormous tax revenues for the government as it sought to begin the process of paying down the deficit. But it was his radical approach to restructuring how entitlement programs were funded that had really ended deficit spending and shored up the programs for future generations, even increasing benefit payments at the same time.
“Jim, as always, I appreciate your pragmatism and ability to see the world as it is, not how us politicians wish it was,” Ashford began, weighing his words carefully. “When the voters saw fit to give me a second term, they did so because they wanted their elected leaders in Washington to address the problems here at home. Not nation building abroad or attempting to be the global cop, the country always sticking its nose into the affairs of others. That said, if Goryunov and Ouyang believe me to be weak, or think that we will sit idly by while they redraw the borders of nations in a way that suits them, they have another thing coming.
“Next month, the GC is meeting in New Delhi to discuss ways to further increase rice production. Separately, they are hosting a trade delegation with representatives from EDEP. They’re looking to establish a long-term deal for the bloc, as opposed to their individual members negotiating deals on their own. How do you think Moscow or Beijing might react if we looked to use these negotiations as leverage to de-escalate things before this May exercise begins?” Ashford asked.
Batista hated the principle of the idea, as it would punish the citizens rather than the leaders it was meant to influence. “I’m hesitant to use something like food over a country, especially one we’re not at war with. If that’s the route you’d like to go, Mr. President, then perhaps we should dangle a better deal for them than they otherwise might get, but we make the deal contingent upon them scaling back the size and scope of this exercise. And we make it abundantly clear — should they decide to turn this exercise into something more, all deals are off. If Russia or China start a war, it’ll negatively impact all the members of EDEP, not just belligerents. I think we could use this to help shape the kind of peaceful outcome we want to see,” Batista replied.
“Jim, are we too late? Should we have pushed this leverage a year ago when the GC officially came into being?” quizzed Ashford, a hesitant look on his face, like he had made a mistake and was only just now realizing it.
Batista shrugged. “That’s hard to say, Mr. President. All I know is since we got that report from South Korean intelligence, DragonBear — I’m just not sure. All signs point to this exercise being cover for something bigger. It seems to me the Russians are preparing to secure the Baltic States and create that long-sought-after land bridge to Kaliningrad, like they did in Ukraine with Crimea.”
Ashford nodded, then sat forward as he asked, “And this Gotland force, Joint Task Force Sentinel — you think this will deter them, along with those other deployments T. J.’s recommending?”
