Batista looked out the frosted window, his breath fogging the glass. “Four months, huh?”
“Four and a half,” Varnell corrected quietly. “That’s all the time we’ve got to decide. Do we call their bluff, or do we let them redraw the map without firing a shot?”
Batista muttered a curse under his breath. “It’s BS, Mr. Secretary. A blockade in all but name.”
“It’s also a test.” Varnell finally sat, his movements sharp with tension. “We’ve suspected this might happen eventually. If I had to guess, Beijing wants to see if we’ll blink. If we’ll submit and accept this as a new normal,” Varnell said angrily. “Four and a half months, Jim. That’s all the time we’ve got before they start strangling Taiwan’s sea lanes and we have to make a tough choice.”
Batista muttered a curse under his breath. “It’s BS, Mr. Secretary. A blockade in all but name.”
“It’s also a test.” Varnell finally sat, his movements sharp with tension. “We’ve suspected this might happen eventually. If I had to guess, Beijing wants to see if we’ll blink. If we’ll submit and accept this as a new normal,” Varnell said angrily. “Four and a half months, Jim. That’s all the time we’ve got before they start strangling Taiwan’s sea lanes and we have to make a tough choice.”
Batista reached into his desk safe, withdrawing a folder marked with classification stamps and a single code word: AZURE SENTINEL. He slid it across to Varnell.
“Presidential Finding 32–33. Signed this morning at 0900.”
Varnell broke the seal, his eyes tracking rapidly across the authorization. His eyebrows rose. “Jesus. Five billion in black funding? Expedited weapons transfers bypassing ITAR?”
“The Taiwan Working Group gets whatever they need,” Batista confirmed. “No bureaucracy, no delays. Marcus Harrington’s people can have Roadrunners, Barracudas, Seekers — the entire autonomous arsenal fully delivered and operational before April fifteenth.”
“If the Chinese don’t sink the ships carrying them,” muttered Varnell.
“They won’t. Not yet.” Batista pulled up a map on his secure tablet. “Beijing’s not ready for that level of escalation. But come April fifteenth…”
“Yeah, I get it. Meanwhile, two weeks later, we’ve got the start of this EDEP exercise before the May Day celebration.” Varnell set the finding aside. “If these DIA reports are correct, we’re looking at two PLA Group Armies deploying to Western Russia. I’ve got EUCOM screaming for more assets. Poland wants another armored brigade on rotation during the exercise. Then the Baltics are raising hell, convinced Russia’s going to pull another 2022 and steamroll across the border.”
“What’s your gut tell you?” asked Batista, eyeing him closely.
Varnell was quiet for a moment. Outside, the snow intensified, obscuring the Washington Monument. “My gut says we’re looking at a coordinated move. China takes Taiwan while Russia annexes the Baltics, creating their long-sought-after land bridge connecting them to Kaliningrad. It’s a classic two-front dilemma, with NATO pinned down in Europe, and America stuck with a choice of going all in to help Europe or coming to the aid of our Asian partners. It’s a lose-lose situation any way you cut it.”
“Which is why TSG matters.” Batista tapped the folder. “Six hundred operators embedded with Taiwanese forces. Each one can manage twenty autonomous platforms. That’s like having twelve thousand soldiers. It’s a force multiplier that’s going to make a difference.”
“Hmm, the jury in my mind is still out on that one. Contractors, Jim… I’m not so sure about this.” Varnell’s tone carried his ongoing disapproval of the idea. “I don’t like it one bit.”
“Respectfully, you don’t have to like it, sir. You just have to make it work,” Batista replied, keeping his voice respectful but firm. “We both know we can’t put active-duty troops on Taiwan right now. Not without triggering the very war we’re trying to prevent. But PMCs? That gives us deniability. It places the decision in the hands of Taiwan.”
“Sure, until they start dying. These are Americans, nearly all of them are military veterans. If that happens, and we begin to see dead Americans in the streets of Taipei. Congress will want answers,” Varnell countered.
“Probably. But by then, it’ll be too late for hearings. The bullets and missiles will be flying.” Batista stood, moving to his wall display. Satellite imagery showed the Taiwan Strait, with PLA Navy vessels marked in red. “Look at the buildup in the ports opposite Taiwan and within five hundred kilometers of it. They’ve moved three of their four carrier groups to this area. Forty-plus amphibious vessels. This isn’t for an exercise. They’re pre-positioning assets, testing logistics, and planning an invasion.”
Varnell sighed audibly as he stood and joined him at the display. “What about our autonomous naval program? Reeves keeps promising those unmanned surface combatants will even the odds.”
