To prove his point, Witte pointed to China, India, Turkey, and Latin America.
Persuasive as this argument was, fiscal exigencies were even more so: Russia urgently needed capital to balance the budget, to broaden the revenue base of the Treasury, and to ease the tax burden of the peasant. The alternative was state bankruptcy and possibly widespread agrarian unrest. Thus fiscal considerations overrode the interests of internal security, pushing the Imperial Government to take the “capitalist” road with all its social and political consequences.
Russia has suffered chronic budgetary deficits ever since the middle of the nineteenth century. There were the immense costs of serf emancipation, the provisions of which committed the government to advance the landlords 80 percent of the value of the land given to their ex-serfs: this money the peasants were supposed to repay over forty-nine years, but they soon fell into arrears. Then there was the costly Balkan War of 1877–78, which caused the Russian ruble to lose 60 percent of its value on foreign exchanges. The government also incurred heavy expenses in connection with its involvement in railroad construction.*
Russia lacked the capital to meet such expenditures. Her revenues rested on a very narrow basis. Direct taxes in 1900 accounted for only 7.9 percent of state income, a fraction of what advanced industrial countries drew from this source. The bulk of the revenues derived from taxes on consumption: sales taxes and customs duties (27.2 percent), proceeds of the liquor monopoly (26 percent), and operations of railways (24 percent). This covered the ordinary expenses but not the military outlays and the costs of railroad construction. Russia partly made good the deficit with sales of grain abroad: in 1891–95 she exported on the average 7 million tons of cereals a year, and in 1902, as much as 9.3 million.60 Most of the revenue, directly and indirectly, came from the peasant, who paid a land tax as well as taxes on articles of necessity (salt, matches, kerosene) and vodka. In the 1870s and 1880s, Russian Finance Ministers obtained the money with which to try to balance the budget mainly by increasing taxes on articles of consumption, which had the effect of forcing the peasant to sell grain that the government then exported. The famine of 1891–92 made clear the limits to such practices: the peasants’ ability to pay, it was now acknowledged, had been exhausted. Fears arose that the continuation of the policy of squeezing the peasant could lead to chronic famines.
On taking over the Ministry of Finance in 1892, Witte adopted a different policy: rather than squeeze the countryside, he borrowed abroad and worked to increase the country’s wealth through industrialization. The development of productive capacities would, he was convinced, improve living standards and, at the same time, enhance government revenues.61 He had initially believed that Russia could raise the capital for her industrialization at home, but he soon realized that domestic financial resources were insufficient62—not only because capital was in short supply but because affluent Russians preferred to invest in mortgages and government bonds. The need for foreign loans became especially pronounced after the crop failures of 1891 and 1892, which forced a temporary curtailment of grain exports and resulted in a fiscal crisis.† Russia’s foreign borrowing, which until 1891 had been on a modest scale, now began in earnest.
To create the impression of fiscal solvency, the Imperial Government occasionally falsified budgetary figures, but its main device to this end was a unique practice of dividing the state budget. The expenses comprised under the “ordinary” budget were more than covered by domestic revenues. Those incurred in maintaining the armed forces and waging war, as well as building railroads, were treated as “non-recurrent” and classified as “extraordinary.” This part of the budget was met from foreign borrowing.
To attract foreign credit, Russia required a convertible currency.
