"For elimination of marine plants we estimate six to nine months-- with the existing fleet. When our tanker program is complete we can reduce that to between three and six months. Also our new bacteriological herbicide will be far more efficient. These organisms are biologically alive as distinct from chemically dead, so they reproduce themselves and actually increase their effectiveness from the moment of dispersal. The longer they're in the water the more abundant they become."
An army colonel down the wing of the table said, "How soon before there's an appreciable drop in oxygen content?"
"We have no idea," Madden said quite calmly.
"No
Madden shook his head, unperturbed by this admission. "Scientific opinion is at variance. At one extreme it's thought that a reduction in atmospheric oxygen will be apparent within five years. At the other, twelve thousand. We simply don't know."
"Can I amplify that?" Farrer put in, raising his hand like a schoolboy asking to leave the room. A civilian member of the scientific liaison team, he was in here in the Prime Situation Center for precisely this purpose.
"I wish someone damn well would," General Beaver said icily.
Farrer smiled diffidently. "There are two factors that make an accurate forecast extremely difficult if not impossible. The first is the sheer volume of the earth's atmosphere: fifty-seven hundred million million tons. The second factor is the complexity of the biosphere and the interaction of its various components: oceans, atmosphere, landmass, living organisms, and so on. Interpretation of the figures, as Colonel Madden has mentioned, varies a great deal. Some forecasts have it that oxygen depletion will become noticeable in just a few years--maybe five, ten, twenty. Others say that were photosynthesis to cease altogether, less than one percent of our present oxygen stock would be used up, in which case it would take many thousands of years."
"It was my impression, Colonel," said General Beaver, fixing Madden with a stony eye, "that DELFI had provided us with an accurate prediction--isn't that so?"
"Correct, General, up to a point."
"What . . . point?" General Beaver said ominously.
"DELFI extrapolates from data we already possess, not from hypothetical factors such as the implementation of DEPARTMENT STORE. Computer weather modeling is still an inexact science and is subject to the same constraints I mentioned a moment ago; that's to say, a lot depends on individual interpretation."
"So where does this leave us in relation to the Soviet threat?" General Smith demanded. "Can anyone answer me
"Where we've always been," Madden said promptly. "Holding the balance of power."
"Explain that to me, Colonel."
"Well, sir, the Russians have Project Arrow, we have DEPARTMENT STORE. Neither of us knows what the effects might be should these schemes be implemented, and it's precisely this uncertainty that each side is seeking to exploit."
"Dammit, Colonel Madden!" General Smith exploded. "Over a year ago you and--and--" He jabbed his finger.
"Farrer," Madden supplied.
"You and Farrer stated with absolute certainty what the effects would be on the United States if the Soviets went ahead with their scheme to divert two rivers away from the Arctic Basin. Your report stated quite specifically"--he ticked them off on his fingers-- "droughts, flooding of our major coastal cities and towns, widespread crop failures throughout the midwest. Are you
"Not at all, sir. Those effects were, and still are, predicted as accurately as we know how. But as Farrer has made clear, the biosphere is an extremely complex mechanism. Neither we nor the Russians knows precisely what might happen." Madden smiled blandly. "Just as no one could say with total certainty how nuclear warfare would affect the planet, General. The same applies to environmental war. It's a gamble."
"Come on, George, we knew that all along," General Stafford admonished his fellow chief of staff. "Hell, if we dealt in copper-bottomed certainties we could hook up a computer and let it make all the decisions. As far as I'm concerned Colonel Madden has laid it on the line."
"So we're back to stalemate," said General Beaver with a heavy sigh. He looked directly at the president. "Until the Soviets decide to go ahead while we're still dithering."
It seemed that the president hadn't heard, or chose to ignore, the criticism. He was watching the display, eyes half-closed. But then he said, "When they make their move we'll be ready. Mr. Zadikov assured me that DEPARTMENT STORE is superior to the Soviet threat. They know we can wipe out the biosphere any time we feel like it. And I would add that I have complete confidence in Mr. Zadikov's judgment."
