“We can reasonably expect the fall of Davao to split the rebel forces into at least three separate groups, located roughly on the east coast, the southern coast, and the north- central parts of Mindanao,” Sun concluded. “This will reduce their ability to fight and dramatically disrupt their own resupply chain. We will force them into more and more austere conditions and reduce their ability to fight.”
Yin nodded thoughtfully. He was impressed with Sun’s briefing. If Sun had started briefing tactics and weapons, Yin would have been upset and concerned. Tactics and weapons did not win invasion campaigns — logistics won invasions. Everything his fleet and ground troops did ultimately had to open and secure supply fines or the invasion was doomed to failure. They were going to pour thousands of men and millions of tons of warships into Davao just to be able to land a few cargo aircraft at the airport or dock a supply ship in the harbor. Sun’s briefing emphasized resupply — that was the way it should be. If the supply fines were cut, he was doomed.
“Excellent, Captain Sun,” Admiral Yin said, bowing from the neck. “I congratulate you and your staff for a well- organized plan, and I wish us all success. Now tell me about areas in which we are weakest.”
“I see two areas of concern for this operation, sir,” Captain Sun replied. “Both relate to the remote possibility of counterattack from American or ASEAN forces.
“First, our close air support and fighter aircraft must launch from Zamboanga Airport — Cotabato Airport is still not secure enough for aircraft operations because of rebel activity. This means our fighters must fly four hundred kilometers one-way to reach Davao Gulf, and almost six hundred kilometers to intercept bombers carrying antiship missiles capable of hitting our warships in Davao Gulf. With the return trip and combat reserves, this leaves almost no loiter time for all our aircraft.”.
“Why was a plan not developed to secure the airport at Cotabato?” Yin asked angrily. “It was a major part of our invasion operation. You had several days and plenty of support, Captain — why am I now being told it is not safe to use this airport?”
“Sir, as I mentioned before to you, we depleted the reserve forces of Group Two to dangerous levels during the assault on Cotabato,” Sun replied. “As you know, we had to abandon our patrols of most of the Sulu Archipelago and create the hundred-kilometer safe zone around Zamboanga to form the invasion fleet for the Cotabato operation. It was barely enough for the job. We have taken the airport at Cotabato, but the staff and I agree that it is not wise to count on using it for the Davao operation. It is suitable as a landing base, and our aircraft recovering there can be refueled, but…”
“Can we not rearm our fighters and attack planes there as well?”
Sun shook his head reluctantly. “We deemed it too dangerous to ship massive amounts of rockets, bombs, and missiles to Cotabato, sir,” he replied. “Fuel trucks and bladders make poor targets for guerrillas with mortars or RPGs, but bomb dumps or parked cargo aircraft make convenient and inviting targets. Guerrilla attacks are too frequent…”
“Curse you, I should have been advised of all this sooner!” Yin exploded. He waved his hand irritably at Sun. “Continue, Captain. What other difficulties do you envision?”
Sun swallowed hard before continuing: he had previously briefed Admiral Yin on the problems with air cover if Cotabato was not secured, and now he was being blamed for not telling him; he had also briefed Yin on the next topic, and it appeared likely that Yin was going to forget about being advised of this as well.
“Sir, with the destroyers moving to the north Davao Gulf and their escorts taking their positions to support the landing, we have decreased our air coverage of the eastern Celebes Sea to a dangerous level,” Sun said.
“What air attacks are you concerned about, Captain?” Yin asked. “The American aircraft carrier is out of position, it cannot launch its strike aircraft, and no other carriers are within range…”
“The land-based bombers are our biggest threat, sir,” Sun replied. “The American Air Battle Force has been on the island of Guam ready to strike…”
“The Americans will not use the heavy bombers against us,” Yin said. “Our intelligence reports stated that the American President did not even want those bombers there. Besides, you reported that the Americans had only a handful of bombers there, less than thirty — is that not so…?”
“The count is accurate, sir,” Sun acknowledged, “but each can carry a number of Harpoon antiship missiles and bombs…”
“They have to get close enough to use them first,” Yin snapped. “Even one of our small patrol boats can destroy a Harpoon missile in flight. And the closer those bombers come to Davao during the invasion, the more effective our antiaircraft guns become.”
