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“Major elements of the U.S. Army’s Twenty-fifth Infantry Division were recently relocated to Andersen Air Force Base from Hawaii, with approximately eight thousand troops. It is designed to be a light, quickly deployable force. Our intelligence estimates state, however, that insufficient air or sealift capability exists to move this force from Guam to the Philippines with any speed. However, if they did move this force, we would oppose them with twice the number of infantry troops already in place on Mindanao and four times the number on Luzon and other areas of the Philippines. Elements of the Second Infantry Division in South Korea and Japan have also been mobilized, but we estimate they are still several days from being called into action and at least a week after that to see action in the Philippines.

“The Third Marine Division and elements of the First Marine Aircraft Wing have been deployed with the Independence carrier battle group, which is now stationed offshore approximately sixty kilometers northeast of Y’ami Island in the Luzon Strait; this is approximately three hundred and fifty kilometers north of the Philippines. In our estimation, the carrier battle group is not in position to strike into Luzon at this time, although they can be in position to strike with their aircraft within twenty-four hours and in position to begin ground operations on Luzon within forty-eight to seventy-two hours; this is what is currently driving our threat condition status throughout the People’s Liberation Army. The total American naval force includes approximately sixteen warships, ten support ships, four to six submarines — perhaps more, the exact number is uncertain — twenty fighter aircraft, and fifty fixed-wing strike aircraft.

“The Fifth Marine Pre-positioning Force from Hawaii has been activated and is deployed in the Philippine Sea with approximately five thousand Marines and forty helicopters, including the MV-22 tilt-rotor transport aircraft that was apparently used in the rescue of Samar and the American pilot on Mindanao. This force can strike in the central Philippines within twenty-four to forty-eight hours’ notice as well. This force includes two landing-ship carriers, four tank-landing carriers, and four support vessels.

“The greatest naval threat to our forces in the southern Philippines was the Ranger carrier battle group,” Sun continued. “The carrier itself is still heavily damaged and considered out of commission; it is being towed to Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, and except for vertical takeoff and landing aircraft is unable to conduct any flight operations.”

A rustle of approving voices filled the conference room.

“However, the latest report has shown that a destroyer and a guided-missile cruiser from the Ranger group are en route to the Celebes from Indonesia and will be within missile range of some of our ships within the next four to five hours. They are being joined by a six-ship surface action group led by the battleship Wisconsin, en route from Hawaii, which our estimates say will be in position to attack in three to five days; these groups carry land-attack Tomahawk cruise missiles. Our embassy has received word that the Ranger's support ships intend to conduct search and rescue operations for their downed crew members lost in the air battle last week—”

“They will not be permitted to enter the Celebes Sea,” Admiral Yin said solemnly. “That I can promise. When Davao has been taken, Group One and Group Two will form to oppose these task forces until additional forces arrive from the mainland.”

“Yes, sir,” Sun continued. “This leaves the greatest threat to the southern Philippines task force, in the estimation of our intelligence section: the American Air Force. The First Air Battle Wing currently deployed on Guam reportedly has two dozen B-52 heavy bombers, perhaps eight long-range supersonic B-l and F-111 bombers, nearly a dozen medium- range F-15 supersonic bombers, two dozen F-15 and F-16 fighter escorts, and various support aircraft, including reconnaissance, early warning, intelligence, and aerial refueling aircraft. Unverified reports from our patrols in the

Philippine Sea say that the Americans might have sent B-2s as well.

“This force can strike within three hours with enough standoff weaponry to devastate large sections of our deployed battle groups. They have been flying reconnaissance flights as far west as Talaud Island, within radar range of our warships outside Davao Gulf. One U-2 spy plane was shot down last night by the destroyer Zhangyhum: we estimate the U-2 was able to get pictures of our vessels in Davao Gulf itself.”

“It does not sound like much of a threat to me, Captain,” Admiral Yin said. “Only thirty-two long-range strike aircraft, most of which are over forty years old? I see no substantial threat.”