“That’s true, technically,” Phillip Gordon said, surprised at Pacino’s fairly arcane knowledge for a military man. “We could introduce a resolution to the UN that specifies sanctions against Japan, no one trading with her at all, unless Japan allows a UN team to inspect and dismantle all the other radiation weapons, as well as ordering Japan to eliminate her air force and navy. The trouble is getting key nations to go along with the sanctions. We’ve had conversations with Vorontsev’s people.” Vladimir Vorontsev was the new president of the Russian Republic. “And?” Warner prompted. “Well, we need to consider events in Russia as well as those in Japan. Russia and America, as you all know, have grown further apart over the last fifteen years. Russia’s governments have been steadily more authoritarian. The Russians are poor. If we set up an effective economic embargo, Russia will abstain from voting for sanctions in the Security Council. It will be an opportunity for them to cozy up to a power, to Japan. Russia has the oil, ore, and lumber that the Japanese need. If we put sanctions on Japan, Russia will still trade with them.
They’ll see it as win-win. They get trade and reduce their own risk of being invaded themselves by Japan. Bottom line — Russia will keep Japan resupplied even after the UN votes sanctions. So sanctions will mean nothing. We are back to a blockade now, which would eliminate a Russian resupply.” Pacino looked at her, almost seeing through her attempts to seem almost naive, a posture that made the men speak their minds more than if she revealed her own opinions. “Furthermore,” Gordon said. “If we are slow to put up a blockade around Japan, the Russians would resupply Japan, neutralizing the sanctions. We would have a very tough time effecting a blockade two weeks from now, with the Russians already supplying Japan — it would mean a confrontation at sea with the Russians.
If we go ahead and set it up now, the Russians would think twice about running it.”
“You’ll still have to wait,” Pacino put in. “The carrier battle group operating in the Pacific under Exercise Pacific Thrust is a long way from Japan. Seven days at tactical-approach velocity from the inner waters around Japan.” “So, Admiral Pacino,” the president said! “you are saying the blockade would be an act of war. And Phillip, you’re saying that without it, sanctions are useless, because there’s a new Russian alignment toward Japan.”
“Exactly,” Philip Gordon said. “Another damned tightrope.”
“Admiral Pacino, how would you recommend proceeding?”
Thin ice, Pacino thought. With Wadsworth in Africa, he was being asked to recommend the Navy’s advice during a time of crisis. If he were wrong, Wadsworth would crucify him. If he were right, Wadsworth would be just as angry for taking the political spotlight from him. “I’m sure Admiral Wadsworth would be better to—”
“Admiral Pacino,” Warner said, iron in her voice, “I’ve asked’your recommendation and I want to hear it. I didn’t ask Boxing Tony, I asked you.”
“Yes, well, I see it like this. The fleet is a week out of Japan. We should do our work now in the UN, as though sanctions will work. We get State to work on Vorontsev to hold back, even if it means giving him some trade benefits, making him whole on the money he’ll lose. Then we take out every Japanese Galaxy satellite in orbit, all ten of them. Our submarines sortie from east and west, seek out the Japanese fleet and sink their submarines. Our aircraft carrier air arm takes on the Firestar fighters, one hopes with a covert night raid that catches them on the ground. Or General clough’s Stealth fighters could go in to neutralize the air force. And if we’re quick about it, we could use air attacks to neutralize some of their submarines, because once they’re at sea, they’ll give us a hell of a fight. We can claim that the strike is done to bring Japan back into compliance with their own constitution, and that we have to take that step because the Greater Manchurian missile attack shows that they can’t be trusted with a military. By that time the USS Ronald Reagan is in the immediate waters off Japan and we can enforce our blockade. The Russians, I suggest, won’t fool with us when we have Japan surrounded.
