The Kremlin’s policy is one of wait and see, and, in the meantime, to increase its
economic and political pressure. The objective of the Union State is firmly maintained
by the Kremlin, which is hoping to extend the existing dance à deux to more partners. Overtures have been made in the direction of Ukraine that under
President Yanukovych pursued a pro-Russian course. The pressure exercised by Russia
on Ukraine was such that Volodymyr Lytvyn, the parliamentary speaker of the Rada, the Ukrainian parliament, felt himself obliged to declare that “Ukraine’s entry
into the Union State of Belarus and Russia is impossible.”[19] “I think that this is utopia,” he said, adding that “Ukraine and Russia should
stop ritual dancing and give direct answers to direct questions.”[20] The Kremlin will certainly continue to put more pressure on Ukraine. A sign of
this is an article by the German political scientist Klaus von Beyme that has been
given a prominent place on the official portal of the Union State (www.soyuz.by). Von Beyme declared himself to be against EU or NATO membership for Ukraine. “From
my point of view,” he wrote, “the optimal solution to the issue would be [a] Slavic
Federation of Ukraine, Belarus and Russia. It would be a natural partner for the EU
and NATO, there is potential for widespread co-operation.”[21] Why such a “Slavic Federation,” a neoimperialist Russian project that under the
Kremlin’s leadership would be directed against the EU and NATO, would be “a natural partner” for the EU and NATO is not explained.
Von Beyme has excellent relations with the Kremlin. The portal of the Union State
mentions that Von Beyme is “the first Western politician awarded the title of Honorary
Professor of Moscow State University.” On his Wikipedia curriculum vitae one can read
that he was the “first West German university student in Moscow after World War II.”
There are reasons not to underestimate the role of the Union State in the Kremlin’s
neoimperialist strategy. The Kremlin’s objectives could be more ambitious than creating
only a Slavic Federation. Kazakhstan could also be a candidate that is on Moscow’s
wish list. The government of South Ossetia, a halfway annexed part of dismembered
Georgia, has already expressed its interest in being incorporated into the Union.
“South Ossetian President Eduard Kokoity has said that the republic may join the Union
State of Russia and Belarus if Minsk recognizes the independence of South Ossetia.”[22] Another candidate is possibly the Moldovan breakaway region Transnistria. Already
in 2003, Pavel Borodin, the secretary of the Russia-Belarus Union, indicated that
Russia wanted to expand the Union into all the countries of the CIS. “Mr Borodin said that Russia would first join with Belarus,
then Ukraine and Kazakhstan,” wrote the Financial Times. “Two, four, then 12 [countries], he said, in a reference to the CIS.”[23] The Union State may not be a Soviet Union-bis, but it will be a Union in which Russian hegemony is assured and in which the formally
preserved national sovereignties of the member states are made subservient to Russian
geopolitical interests.
A Politically Inspired Customs Union
The Russia-Belarus Union State is only one piece in the mosaic of Russia’s neoimperialist
strategy. Because this model of a reintegration of the former Soviet Union, focusing
on a direct political integration, has shown its limitations, being too dependent on the whims of the political
leadership of Russia’s partner country, Moscow had already developed a parallel approach,
based on economic integration. Although this approach initially seemed less promising than straightforward
political integration, it might, in the end, prove more successful. There are two
reasons for this: first, because it is more focused on mutual economic benefits, and, second, because it is experienced by Russia’s partners as
less threatening to their national sovereignty. Economic cooperation projects had already started
under Yeltsin. On March 29, 1996, the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEc) was founded
with Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan as its members. During Putin’s reign, in October
2000, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan joined, followed by Uzbekistan in January 2006. The
goal of the Eurasian Economic Community was to create a Free Trade Area among its
six member states.
