The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable полностью

Gopnik, A., 2004, C. Glymour, D. M. Sobel, L. E. Schulz, T. Kushnir, and D. Danks, D., press, “A Theory of Causal Learning in Children: Causal Maps and Bayes Nets.” Psychological Review 111:3-32.

Granger,Clive W.J.,1999,Empirical Modeling in Economics: Specification and Evaluation.cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Gray, John,2002,Straw Dogs: Thoughts on Humans and Other Animals.London: Granta Books.

Green, Jack, 1962, Fire the Bastards! New York: Dalkey Archive Press.

Green, K. C. 2005, “Game Theory, Simulated Interaction, and Unaided Judgement for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts: Further Evidence.” International Journal of Forecasting 21: 463-472.

Griffin, D. W., and A. Tversky, 1992, “The Weighing of Evidence and the Determinants of Confidence.” Cognitive Psychology24: 411-435.

Griffin, D. W., and C. A. Varey, 1996, “Towards a Consensus on Overconfidence.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes65:227-231.

Gripaios, Peter, 1994, “The Use and Abuse of Economic Forecasts.” Management Decision 32(6): 61-64.

Guedj, Olivier, and Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2006, “Experts’ Earning Forecasts: Bias, Herding and Gossamer Information,” forthcoming.

Guglielmo, Cavallo, and Roger Chartier,1997, Histoire de lalecturedans le monde occidental.paris: éditions du seuil.

Gurvitch, Georges, 1957, “Continuité et discontinuité en histoire et sociologie.” Annales E.S.C.: 73-84.

-, 1966, TheSocial FrameworkofKnowledge. New York: Harper Torchbooks.

Hacking, Ian, 1965, Logic of Statistical Inference. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

-, 1983,Representing and Intervening: Introductory Topics in the Philosophy of Natural

Science. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

-, 1990, The Taming of Chance. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

-, 1999, The Social Construction of What? Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.

-, 2001,An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic.Cambridge: Cambridge Universitypress.

Hahn, Frank, 1993, “Predicting the Economy.” In Leo Howe and Alan Wain, eds., 1993.

Hannon, L., 2003, “Poverty, Delinquency, and Educational Attainment: Cumulative Disadvantage or Disadvantage Saturation?” Sociological Inquiry 73: 575-594.

Hansen, R. D., and J. M. Donoghue, 1977, “The Power of Consensus: Information Derived from One’s Own and Others’ Behavior.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology35:294-302.

Hardy, G. H., 1940, A Mathematician’s Apology. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Harris, Olivia, 2004, “Braudel: Historical Time and the Horror of Discontinuity.” History Workshop Journal57:161-174.

Harvey, N., 1997, “Confidence in Judgment.” Trends in Cognitive Science 1: 78-82.

Hasher, L., and R. T. Zacks, 1979, “Automatic and Effortful Processes in Memory.” Journal of Experimental Psychology: General108: 356-388.

Haug, Espen, 2007, Derivatives: Models on Models. New York: Wiley.

Hausman, DanielM., éd., 1994,The Philosophy of Economics: An Anthology,2nded. Newyork: Cambridge University Press.

Hayek, E A., 1945, “The Use of Knowledge in Society.” American Economic Review 35(4): 519-530.

-, 1994, The Road to Serfdom. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.

Hecht, Jennifer Michael, 2003, Doubt: A History. New York: Harper Collins.

Hempel, C, 1965, Aspects of Scientific Explanation. New York: The Free Press.

Henderson, Bill, and André Bernard, eds., Rotten Reviews and Rejections. Wainscott, N.Y: Pushcart.

Hespos, Susan, 2006, “Physical Causality in Human Infants.” Interdisciplines Conference on Causality, www.interdisciplines.org.

Hexter, J. H.,1979,On Historians, Reappraisals of Some of the Masters of Modern History.Cambridge,mass.: harvard university press.

Hicks, Steven V., and Alan Rosenberg, 2003, “The ‘Philosopher of the Future’ as the Figure of Disruptive Wisdom.” Journal of Nietzsche Studies 25: 1-34.

Hilton, Denis, 2003, “Psychology and the Financial Markets: Applications to Understanding and Remedying Irrational Decision-making.” In I. Brocas and J. Carillo, eds., 2003.