The Eurasian Century полностью

130.“Putin Warns Any Foreign Attempt to Interfere with Russian Action Would Lead to ‘Consequences They Have Never Seen,” Associated Press, February 23, 2022; Mykhaylo Zabrodskyi et al., Preliminary Lessons in Conventional Warfighting from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: February–July 2022, Royal United Services Institute, July 2022; Greg Miller and Catherine Belton, “Russia’s Spies Misread Ukraine and Misled Kremlin as War Loomed,” Washington Post, August 19, 2022; author’s discussions with U.S. officials, February–April 2022.

131.On the early days, see Hal Brands, “Ukraine and the Contingency of Global Order,” Foreign Affairs, February 14, 2023; Liam Collins, Michael Kofman, and John Spencer, “The Battle of Hostomel Airport: A Key Moment in Russia’s Defeat at Kyiv,” War on the Rocks, August 10, 2023.

132.Frederick Kagan and Mason Clark, “How Not to Invade a Nation,” Foreign Affairs, April 29, 2022; Paul Sonne, Ellen Nakashima, Shane Harris, and John Hudson, “Hubris and Isolation led Vladimir Putin to Misjudge Ukraine,” Washington Post, April 12, 2022.

133.Zabrodskyi et al., Preliminary Lessons; Paul Sonne, Isabelle Khurshudyan, Serhiy Morgunov, and Kostiantyn Khudov, “Battle for Kyiv: Ukrainian Valor, Russian Blunders Combined to Save the Capital,” Washington Post, August 24, 2022.

134.Shane Harris et al., “Road to War: U.S. Struggled to Convince Allies, and Zelensky, of Risk of Invasion,” Washington Post, August 16, 2022; author’s discussions with U.S. officials, April 2023.

135.Harris et al., “Road to War”; Julian Barnes and Helene Cooper, “Ukrainian Officials Drew on U.S. Intelligence to Plan Counteroffensive,” New York Times, September 10, 2022; Jahara Matisek, Will Reno, and Sam Rosenberg, “The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: Assessing a Year of Military Aid to Ukraine,” Royal United Services Institute, February 22, 2023.

136.Seth Jones, “The Bloody Toll of Russia’s War in Ukraine,” Lawfare, March 19, 2023.

137.Victor Jack, “Sergey Lavrov Admits Russia Was Surprised by Scale of Western Sanctions,” Politico Europe, March 23, 2022.

138.European countries, namely Germany, surprised Washington with how far they were willing to go on sanctions. Yet these countries presumably would have been less willing to antagonize Russia absent U.S. security guarantees.

139.“Germany Says It Is No Longer Reliant on Russian Energy,” BBC, January 18, 2023; “Poland Boosts Defence Spending over War in Ukraine,” BBC, January 30, 2023; Stacy Meichtry, Alistair MacDonald, and Noemie Bisserbe, “Europe’s Defense Dilemma: To Buy, or Not to Buy American,” Wall Street Journal, July 10, 2023.

140.Author’s discussions with officials in Tokyo and Canberra, November 2022; Mike Yeo, “New Japanese Strategy to Up Defense Spending, Counterstrike Purchases,” Defense News, December 20, 2022; Samson Ellis and Cindy Wang, “Taiwan Plans 14% Boost in Defense Spending to Counter China,” Bloomberg, August 25, 2022.

141.“ ‘Ukraine Today Could Be East Asia Tomorrow’: Japan PM Warns,” France24.com, June 10, 2022.

142.Tessa Wong, “G7 Takes Stand against China’s ‘Economic Coercion,’ ” BBC, May 21, 2023; Gregory Allen, China’s New Strategy for Waging the Microchip Tech War, Center for Strategic and International Studies, May 2023.

143.“Remarks by President Biden on the United Efforts of the Free World to Support the People of Ukraine,” White House, March 26, 2022.

144.Parts of this section draw on Hal Brands, “The Battle for Eurasia,” Foreign Policy, Summer 2023.

145.Stuart Lau, “Xi Warns Putin Not to Use Nuclear Arms in Ukraine,” Politico, November 4, 2022.

146.“CIA Director Bill Burns on War in Ukraine, Intelligence Challenges Posed by China,” PBS, December 16, 2022; Aamer Madhani, “White House Says Iran Is Helping Russia Build a Drone Factory East of Moscow for the War in Ukraine,” Associated Press, June 9, 2023.

147.“Russia in Joint Naval Exercises with China and Iran in the Gulf of Oman,” Euronews, March 16, 2023; Nathaniel Taplin, “How Russia Supplies Its War Machine,” Wall Street Journal, March 10, 2023.

148.Alexander Gabuev, “What’s Really Going On between Russia and China,” Foreign Affairs, April 12, 2023; “China’s Xi Tells Putin of ‘Changes Not Seen for 100 Years,’ ” Al Jazeera, March 22, 2023.

149.Jay Solomon, “Iran Is Using the World’s Largest Lake to Evade the U.S. and Ship Weapons to Russia,” Semafor, June 6, 2023.

150.Trym Eiterjord, “Amid Ukraine War, Russia’s Northern Sea Route Turns East,” Diplomat, December 13, 2022.